I don’t think that’s going to happen. The Mayor needs us to rely on his budget numbers. But if we do, either taxes go up again later or the Mayor’s numbers were faulty from the beginning.

In his State of Metro address, Mayor Dean assured us, “… after four years, there is little fat left. To make significant budget reductions this year would mean cutting into muscle.” Does this not mean there is still room for cuts. He hasn’t said where the fat is or how much there is, but it’s there. Little or not, shouldn’t we cut all the fat before we start raising taxes? Significant budget reductions or not, shouldn’t we first reduce the budget by all the unnecessary spending possible before asking taxpayers for more money? If there’s still $1M in fat in the budget, why propose a $100M tax increase? Isn’t the truth that we’d then only need $99M? As I said – faulty numbers.

The Mayor originally proposed a $0.53 increase in both the USD and the GSD. When it was pointed out he could not raise the GSD rate by $0.53 without violating Metro’s Charter Mayor Dean reduced the GSD increase to just $0.48; a 4.72% drop from his original totals. That loss would seem to need to be made up with further tax increases. After all, the Mayor assured us we needed every last dime of the original $100M.

Except Metro Finance Director Rich Riebeling says we don’t. Per The City Paper, ““We will still have the same budget total as we did before,” Riebeling said, adding that the administration can make some other modifications to make up the difference. “Effectively, it will be the same budget numbers.” So we didn’t really didn’t $100M? Then why propose it? Which begs two questions. What other modifications can be made so the Mayor can make do with even less? If the Mayor missed a factor as significant as how much he can actually raise our taxes, how credible are the rest of his figures?

Most disturbing is the likely need for another property tax increase next year. Property taxes are levied by formula on 25% of the value of a house and 40% of the value of a business. The value of homes and businesses for their property tax bill is set every 4 years. The last time was 2009. It will be done again next year. Nashville homes will be worth less in 2013 than in 2009. The question is “How much less?”

Again, the Mayor said we need $100M annually and his increase provides it. But for every 1% drop in property value, the Mayor’s projected tax revenues go down almost $1M. According to Zillow.com, a Nashville home valued at $150,000 in March, 2008 was worth just $131,000 in March, 2012. That’s a 12.7% decrease. ForecastChart.com predicts, with 85% confidence, that Nashville’s housing prices will continue to decline through the end of 2014. Which is to say the Mayor’s plan will not raise $100M a year for the next couple of years.

Which means either taxes are going up or the Mayor’s numbers are seriously flawed.

The Mayor said, in his State of Metro address, that he was doing the things needed to grow Nashville’s economy and tax base. Raising property taxes, in point of fact, does neither. Instead, $100M is actually removed from the economy. All taxation reduces the economy. It’s the nature of taxation. While some of it will return via spending after pay raises, not all of it will and the city’s economy will shrink, not grow. Regarding tax base growth,  to the extent people leave Nashville, or don’t come here in the first place, in objection to high taxes, the tax base shrinks as well.

In the meantime, my confidence in Mayor Dean’s budget numbers is shrinking. The only thing growing is my conviction that we’re getting a tax increase this year and another one next year, too.

SEE ALSO:

Mayor Dean’s Property Tax Increase Won’t Raise More Money @ Blue Collar Muse;

NASHVILLE – Tennessee Gov. Bill Haslam and Department of Veterans Affairs Commissioner Many-Bears Grinder regretfully announce the loss of Tennessee soldier, Sergeant Jacob Michael Schwallie of Clarksville.

Schwallie and two other paratroopers were fatally injured when their military vehicle was struck by a roadside bomb on May 7, in Ghanzi Province, Afghanistan. Sergeant Schwallie was serving with C Troop, 3^rd Squadron, 73^rd Cavalry Regiment, 82^nd Airborne Division, Fort Bragg, North Carolina.  Specialist Chase Marta of California and PFC Dustin Gross of Kentucky were also killed in the explosion.

The 22-year old Clarksville native, graduated from Rossview High School in 2007.  Schwallie enlisted in the United States Army in 2008.

“On behalf of the state of Tennessee, we extend our deepest condolences and continuous prayers for the Schwallie family,” Haslam said.  “We are proud of Jacob’s service to his state and his country and will not take his sacrifice for granted.”

Schwallie is survived by his parents, Thomas C. and Melinda Schwallie, sister Rachel Schwallie, brother Stuart (Nasharyra) Schwallie and grandmothers Etta Schwallie Roach, Bettye Pyron.

“It is with great sadness that we receive the news of Sergeant Schwallie’s ultimate sacrifice to his state and his country,” Grinder said.  “This is the time to surround the Schwallie family with prayers and support as they mourn the loss of their heroic loved one.”

Sgt Schwallie will posthumously receive the Tennessee Fallen Heroes Medal and has posthumously been awarded the Bronze Star Medal, the Purple Heart Medal and the NATO ISAF Medal, Combat Infantryman Badge.

Sgt Schwallie’s Memorial Service will be held at 11:00 a.m. on Saturday, May 12^th at Madison Street United Methodist Church, 319 Madison Street, Clarksville, TN.  A private burial will be held at Arlington National Cemetery, Arlington, VA.

That descriptive quote comes from a recently passed Joint Resolution from the 107th Tennessee General Assembly (GA), HJR 587, condemning Agenda 21 and exposing some of its more dangerous and anti-American foundational principles. In condemning Agenda 21, the Tennessee General Assembly is joining together with both grassroots groups nationwide and also a broad swath of Republican organizations who have also condemned the plan. The Republican National Committee (RNC) recently condemned Agenda 21. Locally, the Williamson County Republican Party issued a statement in solidarity with the RNC’s position. Even Democrats are getting on board in opposing Agenda 21.

Clearly, opposition to Agenda 21 is one of the few issues with broad appeal across the political spectrum; horizontally in crossing party lines and vertically from Washington DC to the Grassroots.

Dean’s $100,000,000 annual increase seems to be just for basic services. He wants to pay teachers a higher starting salary and raise the salaries of teachers not making the new minimum to that new minimum; to give Metro employees a 2%-4% raise since they haven’t had a raise in 3 years; to keep paying for 50 police officers he hired with temporary federal money which we now have to pay the entire amount for; to improve or build schools to meet an increased demand; to fund and pay for pension and benefits packages for Metro employees of the same sort bankrupting cities like Chicago and states like Illinois and California.

But Mayor Dean’s approach is precisely the wrong one. So wrong, in fact, that his plan will actually work against what he wants to accomplish. When additional tax revenues are “needed” by government, there are only two options. It can tax taxpayers more or it can attract more taxpayers. Only the second option raises revenues reliably and for the long term.

The more vital or basic the service being funded, the more urgent it not be funded with shrinking revenues. Yet the Mayor’s plan is to fund necessary programs with shrinking revenues. That doesn’t sound right on first hearing. How can revenues shrink if we raise the tax? Yet the general truth of taxation is that you get less of what you tax. When taxes go up, consumption goes down. In the case of “vice” or “sin” taxes, you get fewer adult businesses or alcohol sales. In this case, it’s fewer property owners paying property taxes.

Consider that Tennessee decided, on July 1, 2007, to raise its cigarette tax from $0.20 a pack to $0.62 a pack. Overnight, we went from the lowest cigarette tax in the region to the highest. People immediately began to travel to other states to buy cigarettes at a lower price. That practice was so widespread the Tennessee Department of Revenue set up sting operations to catch Tennesseans with more out-of-state cigarettes than the government allows. 5 years later, the collection of cigarette taxes still falls millions of dollars short of the state’s projections. There is no reason to believe Nashville will avoid the results of increased taxation in this instance.

Facing a budget crisis in 2008, Chicago tried decided to fix the problem by raising their sales tax to 10.25%, then and still the highest in the nation. In just the first month following the increase, the actual collection of sales tax reported by the Illinois Department of Revenue fell by 12%. Illinois has followed that tax increase up with a 67% increase in their state income tax. Businesses and people who can are fleeing the state for better tax climates. That includes a 60 year resident of Illinois and former State Senator in Illinois who left for Texas last year and wrote a letter outlining why.

In his speech, Mayor Dean noted, “People, and businesses, choose where to locate based on a number of factors – strength of economy, availability of transit, the quality of schools.” However, if we’ve learned anything in the last decade it’s that citizens and companies also look for things like taxation and responsible government spending when deciding where to locate. Which explains why Chicago had a net loss in population from 2000 to 2010 and why Illinois used to have 25 US Congressmen based on their population and now they only have 18.

Mayor Dean’s plan assumes a steady or growing number of property owners paying higher property taxes. That’s a faulty premise. There are counties adjacent to Davidson County just waiting for us to flee higher taxes. New residents moving here, even to work at Nashville companies, don’t have to live in Nashville. We already know many don’t. Mayor Dean’s plan does nothing to change or address those realities. He ignores them at his peril and that of the rest of Nashville.

Please Mayor, for your sake and for ours, don’t raise our taxes.

SEE ALSO:

If Mayor Dean’s Numbers are Off Your Taxes Will Go Up Again Soon @ Blue Collar Muse;

Mayor Dean’s Property Tax Increase Won’t Raise More Money by Rod Williams @ A Disgruntled Republican;

Their ranking of The Heavy Hundred lists the 100 “most important radio talk show hosts in America” from all genres except Sports Talk, which has its own list this year due to the popularity and proliferation of that genre of talk radio. Nashville’s talkers did well on the list as did at least one former Tennessee host. The criteria for consideration for inclusion on the list are, in alphabetical order, “courage, effort, impact, longevity, potential, ratings, recognition, revenue, service, talent and uniqueness.” Talkers freely admits the process is subjective and that differences of opinion are expected.

We had one talker in the top 10. WTN’s Dave Ramsey who hosts his show, Financial Peace, weekdays from 1PM-4PM ranked #6 for the nation. The entire top 10 is as follows: #1 – Rush Limbaugh; #2 – Sean Hannity; #3 – Michael Savage; #4 – Ed Shultz; #5 – Laura Ingraham; #6 – Dave Ramsey; #7 – Mark Levin; #8 – Thom Hartmann; #9 – Glenn Beck; #10 – Joe Madison.

Following Dave Ramsey, other Tennessee talkers did well with Phil Valentine coming in at #42 and Steve Gill at #76. Rankings from 101-250 were displayed in alphabetical order for ease of locating them. Other talkers with Tennessee ties on this portion of the list include WTN’s Michael DelGiorno; Mark Skoda out of Memphis on WMPS, Mike Slater, former Jackson, TN host and now morning drive talker in San Diego, CA and Knoxville’s Hallerin Hilton Hill on WOKI.

That Tennessee has this caliber of talker across the breadth of the state speaks well of our activism, our passion and our value to the rest of the nation as a leading voice in the national political discourse. Congratulations to all those who made the list. Congratulations, too, to the next tier of talkers who will, no doubt, be on the list next year. I cannot explain the omission of WTN’s Ralph Bristol. This is going to be one of the claims of subjectivism that I’ll raise. When it comes to the criteria involved, few hosts I know meet them better than Ralph. Even if Talkers doesn’t see his value and worth to our city and state, those of us here are well aware.

Other political talkers you might recognize are Neil Boortz at #13, Alan Colmes at #15, Dennis Miller at #21, Bill Bennett at #23, Roger Hedgecock at #32, Mike Huckabee at #58, G. Gordon Liddy at #65, Geraldo Rivera at #75, Alex Jones at #85, Dana Loesch at #89 and Joyce Kaufmann at #100.

Stay tuned for the 2013 rankings …